Too much churn and not enough burn. besides all that thinking and trading makes my Bwain Hurt.
short sales or floats seems like the way to make a killing right now stock wise…when these banks create more stock those will be long term killers i believe…suprisingly, ive been about 16/20 (towards the green) in my practice stock portfolio…if i only had the money to invest!!!
Everybody’s in the green in their practice portfolio but when it is real money you don’t think with your head as much and do stupid emotional things.
[quote=“longballz84, post:22, topic:1540”]
when these banks create more stock those will be long term killers i believe…[/quote]
I’d consider “long-term” on a financial to be more than a week right now … maybe less.
lol, yeah, practicing is easier than the real game…and most of my short sales have been about a month at longest…then i may reinvest or just move on…
typically on your taxes your limited to writing off $3000 dollars per year worth of losses on investments, in 09 tax year it may be $20,000…and with the preferential treatment that long term gains get (tax wise)…its definitly the time to invest…im just watching everything to try to find the indicator that things have either bottomed or leveled out…then thats why i will really begin my short sale technique my boss has been talking about…
anyone on here consider themselves an active trader? if so what kind of analysis are you a fan of? im pretty much quanitative+qualitative analyzer with a pinch of gut to top it off…im a big ratio guy, which can get tricky in a lot of markets for comparing…but i also like to consider the qualitative aspects of a Co…what do you think the indicator of the market leveling out will be? the unemployment rate? gdp growth? housing market…ect…??
[quote=“ronert, post:24, topic:1540”]
[quote=“longballz84, post:22, topic:1540”]
when these banks create more stock those will be long term killers i believe…[/quote]
I’d consider “long-term” on a financial to be more than a week right now … maybe less. [/quote]
did you hear about how the banks are considering creating shares of stock as means to pay back the bailout…depending on how many shares they put on the market…this could eventually provide good returns…maybe not dividens…but the market price should take off after this storm clears up…
but once again, im being very risky with my practice portfolio, but way more conservative with my own pennies that i have in the market…once i feel comfortable, im going to go in a little deeper.
[quote=“longballz84, post:25, topic:1540”]
what do you think the indicator of the market leveling out will be? the unemployment rate? gdp growth? housing market…ect…??[/quote]
Not an active trader but am a risk analyst for a bank so I do watch things relatively closely.
I think we are starting to see the bottom of the market, some of the bigger banks are starting to report their losses slowing and I think one even recorded a profit for the 1st quarter this year. There’s probably another 9 months to a year before we start seeing any growth in any of the markets.
I think keeping an eye on the housing market and the bank quarterly reporting should be a pretty solid indicator of when the turn around is starting. I think when housing prices halt their decline and banks show a profit it will ease investors mindsets and we should see a fairly steady increase over the upcoming months - there will be a lot of fluctuation as the market rebounds, but it should be best to sit tight and ride it out at that point.
banks seem to be writing off a lot of bad debts right now…which for most is a good thing…the bank that posted the profit i think wrote off a monstrous amount of bad debt…once they restructure, the growth should come back…hopefully…a lot depends on how the market will respond, interest rates, and if the banks are going to give loans with very strict standards…a lot of people previously eligible to get loans are going to be either denied or are going to be paying a outrageous rate…
have you heard anything about the banks creating stock to help pay back the federal loans? the more i think about the concept, it seems very risky, for both sides, but thats where the money is…
after all this restructuring there are going to be a lot more foreign countries with interest in the us…they are buying a lot of undervalued stocks in many different industries…
[quote=“longballz84, post:25, topic:1540”]
anyone on here consider themselves an active trader? if so what kind of analysis are you a fan of? im pretty much quanitative+qualitative analyzer with a pinch of gut to top it off…im a big ratio guy, which can get tricky in a lot of markets for comparing…but i also like to consider the qualitative aspects of a Co…what do you think the indicator of the market leveling out will be? the unemployment rate? gdp growth? housing market…ect…??[/quote]
Not as active as i’d like to be. i like pivot points and elliott wave analyses. are you looking for a bottoming indicator? or a leveling indicator?
[quote=“longballz84, post:26, topic:1540”]
did you hear about how the banks are considering creating shares of stock as means to pay back the bailout…depending on how many shares they put on the market…this could eventually provide good returns…maybe not dividens…but the market price should take off after this storm clears up…[/quote]
one reason i’m not touching any fins … the rules are changing and not, imo, stable
both ron, i would like to know how I can look for the bottom and following the bottom, how i can find the level…Should i be looking both macro and micro when im doing this? or mostly macro?
I have not heard of banks creating more stock to repay the bailout. I have heard though that Obama is looking to create a national cap on interest rates which will prevent people from paying outrageous rates to banks. It will also prevent a lot of people from getting loans through traditional measures, which means if you ever wanted to get in to the loan sharking business…now would be a good time to do so.
We are rapidly moving towards a Socialists system in this country and I am getting the distinct impression if the government continues to invest in the private sector that there will no longer be a stok market to be concerned with.
Think about it the federal government already has it’s hand in Banking, Insurance, Auto industry, I think the only major sector they don’t currently have a considerable interest in is the communications sector…and I wonder how long it is going to be before they get in to that.
once the govenrment obtains the controlling interest in each company it can then pay off the stock holders at the current ridiculously low rates and turn the companies “private” or “government run” which in turn eliminates us from haivng any say imn how it’s run, and eliminates the premise of a free economy. The concept of “monopoly” does not apply to the government so there is no concern of them pushing out the little guy that didn’t need their “help”.
Gold Bullion is probably a wise investment at this time as I believe the stock market could very well be on it’s way out permanently.
Now I have to go, the men in dark suits and sun glasses just showed up. ;D
“Now I have to go, the men in dark suits and sun glasses just showed up”
thumpthumpthumpthumpthumpthump.
it’s those black helicopters you now need to worry about.
Just don’t tell them I have your camera…
did u guys hear that they are thinking about reimbersing the people who were ripped off by Madoff…??? this is crazy
this must be the Fed + SEC’s way of saying woops…
[quote=“longballz84, post:30, topic:1540”]
both ron, i would like to know how I can look for the bottom and following the bottom, how i can find the level…Should i be looking both macro and micro when im doing this? or mostly macro?[/quote]
i’ve been looking mostly macro - mainly @ the dow during the depression recovery as well as the overall trend since then.
look @ the chart on a log scale and you can draw a trendline over the decades to get a guess @ level. you can also see the credit bubble that started in the 80’s and really took off in the mid 90’s.
same chart (log scale) gives a feel for both the slide and the recovery process we’re in store for.
as for guessing a bottom … if you can figure that one out, you’ll be a rich man
[quote=“longballz84, post:34, topic:1540”]
did u guys hear that they are thinking about reimbersing the people who were ripped off by Madoff…??? this is crazy
this must be the Fed + SEC’s way of saying woops…[/quote]
just another form of wealth redistribution …
By the way … David Kellerman (Freddiie Mac CFO) just died of what might be suicide.
Think we’ve bottomed yet? I don’t …
I’ve gone back to the old adage “cash is king”. I work too hard and long I am not giving it up with out a fight
Just my thoughts
mike
wow, that is crazy about the guy from Freddie Mac Ronert…could you imagine being in upper management where almost all of your pay probley comes from stock options of some sort, or are based on the performance of the company…these guys were probley worth millions on paper, and now have seen it shrivel up to hundred thousands…we’d love the money…but to them its like chicken poop…
Cool Tool!
If you want a fast visual about whats moving in the market, try this. Live real time updating, size weighted by market cap for sectors and companies. just roll your mouse over the boxes to get a popup of each company and click for more info. its only live during trading hours though.
What’s Hot! and What’s Not!!
fun to play with anyway. oh yeah, pretty sure we hit bottom when the S&P 500 bounced off an inter-day low of the prophetic number 666 on about March 9th last month. it closed at 866 today, up 30% since then. the easy money has already been made. from here on it gets tougher.